Two Significant New Developments in Yemen

Abdel Bari Atwan

Today the Saudi-led coalition enters the fourth week of its aerial bombardment of Houthi positions in Yemen and the death toll among civilians stands at more than 1,000. With no imminent prospect of dialogue to reach a negotiated settlement, the situation can only get worse.
There have been two major developments over the past days:
• First: The Saudis and Egyptians are close to agreeing joint military manoeuvres following a lightning visit by Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, the Saudi Defense Minister, and son of King Salman Ibn Abdel Aziz, Chairman of the Cabinet, to Cairo for talks with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
• Second: The UN Security Council passed a resolution on Tuesday imposing an arms embargo on the Houthis and calling on them to withdraw from the areas they have seized, including the capital, Sanaa. The resolution also blacklisted Ali Abdullah Saleh, the former Yemeni President’s son, and the Houthi leader Abel Malik al-Houthi. The two men face a global assets freeze and travel ban. President Saleh and two other Houthi leaders – Abdel al-Khlaiq al-Houthi and Abdullah Yahya al-Hakim – were blacklisted in November.
Regarding the Saudi-Egyptian move – there are two possible interpretations. One is that a ground invasion, involving Egyptian troops, is imminent. The other is that the two countries are attempting to ramp up pressure on the Houthis in order to bring them to the negotiating table and force concessions from them.
In an official statement following the visit from his Saudi guest, General al-Sisi said that ‘the security of the Gulf region is a red line for Egypt, and is an integral part of our national security, especially the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab straits’. Neverthless, we feel it is unlikely that Egypt will send ground troops to the war in Yemen, even if such a request has been made. With major regional powers Pakistan and Turkey standing back from the conflict, Egypt will be reluctant to go against the grain. Talk of military manoeuvres, rather than the full engagement of troops, may be a compromise stance for Cairo.
Egypt will not have forgotten its involvement in the 1962-1967 North Yemen Civil War when it supported the Republicans against the Royalists who were backed by Saudi Arabia. Of 70,000 Egyptian troops deployed in Yemen, 26,000 were killed and Egyptian historians refer to the disastrous war as ‘Egypt’s Vietnam’. The disaster had wider-reaching implications in that it greatly weakened the Egyptian Army at the time when its Arab brethren in Palestine needed it most – during the six-days war with Israel.
It is no coincidence that veteran Egyptian writer Mohammed Hassanein Heikal, a contemporary of ‘Egypt’s Vietnam’ is one of the loudest voices speaking out against any involvement in the latest Yemen war.
Moving on to the Security Council resolution, it is notable that the only abstention came from Russia. Why didn’t Russia exercise its veto and prevent the resolution entirely? We believe that Moscow did not want to lose the paragraph in the resolution that calls for the warring parties to implement a cease-fire and come to the negotiating table as soon as possible.
The Resolution is commendable and no-one could argue with its demands. It is also a significant diplomatic victory for Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies. It is unlikely, however, to change anything on the ground. One could offer the criticism that it is too little too late – if the embargo on weapons to the Houthis had been in place three years ago we would not have seen Iranian ships and aircraft carrying all kinds of weapons and military equipment coming an going unhindered in Yemen’s ports and aiport.
There are more than 50 million firearms in Yemen; half of them arrived in the country from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries to arm the tribes and anti-Houthi groups but quite probably were commandeered by the Houthis just as weapons sent to the Syrian armed opposition ended up in the hands of Islamic State fighters.
Regarding the travel ban on Mr Abdel Malik Al-Houthi, we do not believe that this is a gentleman much given to jet-setting round the world’s capitals, if he has ever left Yemen it will have been the exception rather than the rule. Nor have we read, or heard on the grapevine, that he owns property or stocks or bank accounts abroad – we do not believe he has significant assets worth ‘freezing’.
The most important steps the international community should be taking are those that will lead to a political solution as soon as possible. The History of Yemen assures us that the country is the graveyard of any army rash enough to invade.